Single Pilot Potential
 

Not trying to fear monger or anything but Ive heard some people are afraid to go cargo due to the potential of they would be the first to go single pilot ops. Any merit to those fears!?

I went through all the threads and didn't find this topic anywhere.

rumors are true. The Cylons are taking over cargo aviation. Eventually they will come for passengers too.

Not nervous about single pilot ops. If you can go single pilot that means you can go no pilot, since the single pilot could become incapacitated. I really don’t foresee approval for 0 pilot airplanes anytime soon. Especially after CrowdStrike.

That's the crux of the issue.

You could ponder whether they might be OK with an incapacitated single pilot and a widebody full of boxes augering in. But the big jets tend to fly in and out of developed metro areas, so people on the ground would be at risk to some degree at least.

Once they achieve what they think is suitable full autonomy, they'll try it out with cargo ops first. But in my informed (computer and engineering professional) opinion that's a loooong ways off. Not in our working lifetimes. Once they actually develop the tech, they'll have to do a clean sheet aircraft design, most likely not economical to retro-fit to existing designs. And then it get it by the regulators.

They're going to have to do all that on a money-losing basis for the limited cargo market, just to get the operating experience necessary to get certified (and have public confidence) for pax ops.

It's one of the benefits of having a strong union. It's a hot button item that they actively fight against. Like others have said, I doubt we'll see it in our working lifetime, too much regulation to go through for a short-term roll out.

This has all happened before and it will happen again

In seriousness, reduced crew operations will come to cargo operations before it comes to passenger carriers.

That being said, consider how long it took the FAA to approve *ipads* to replace paper charts. Now consider that there are no currently made Part 25 aircraft that are certified for single pilot operations. Now think about network integrity with MELs, CAT II/III operations, pilot rest/fatigue, etc. Remember Germanwings 9525. Consider risk evaluation/mitigation and potential legal liability concerns. And finally, think about what will be the single biggest obstacle to national/international regulatory approval - politics.

I don't believe we'll see single pilot Part 25 widebody cargo jets operating for 121 carriers in my career, or even my lifetime; if we start seeing single pilot C17s going into warzones, perhaps I'll recalibrate but Uncle Sugar accepts more risk than Fortune 100 corporations do. I do believe an attempt to stretch when an IRO or double crew is required per regulation is more likely, but still don't see going below 2 required crewmembers in the next number of decades.

I think the idea that single pilot means no pilot is a psychological defense against a real threat. The two pilot redundancy can and probably will be replaced by one pilot plus AI redundancy. In addition, Reliable real time interconnectivity between aircraft and ground operations can expand CRM to an entire ground based team with direct ability to control any thing from flight path to individual systems. It won’t happen on our current fleet but I don’t think we’re even a single A/C generation removed from early implementation.

Airline operators stand to save significantly more money with reduction in pilot capacity than Ipads or most other recent cockpit tech innovations. Network reliability should increase eventually with fewer pilots as well. Things happen faster when motivated parties are the ones holding the cards. Situations such as Germanwings and MH371 have proven that rogue pilots can be successful in spite of the two man cockpit. Consider the implications of real time ground monitoring and the ability to override the pilot in such an event. Also consider a situation such as with AF447. A ground based team of pilots and specialists who is monitoring aircraft parameters could quickly assist and in extreme cases override a frozen pilot who has lost SA, effectively transplanting the most competent system matter experts into the cockpit on demand.

I'll just reiterate that I don't think we'll see single pilot Part 25 widebody jets operating for 121 cargo carriers in my career, or even my lifetime.

I suppose we'll see...