I hope we are not planning on matching Delta as they have already exchanged openers for their next contract.

We need to aim higher.

Im sure the unions have talked and we are fully aware

We will definitely have to aim higher, because the bar will be reset in short order.

What makes you think the legacies are walking into the same environment that produced the last round of contracts?

Fuel costs have moved higher again, some airlines are already trimming growth, and there’s more focus on protecting margins than expanding at all costs. That’s happening now, not hypothetically.

At the same time, they’re carrying significantly higher fixed labor costs from the last round of deals, which were negotiated during one of the strongest demand environments the industry has ever seen.

Demand still looks solid, but the landscape is clearly shifting from expansion toward cost control.

Personally, I think expecting another quick cycle of outsized gains like we saw post-COVID is optimistic. The current environment looks materially different than the one that produced those contracts.

I don’t have any in-depth industry analysis to rely on, but Delta seems to still be hiring like crazy and they are competing for qualified pilots with the other legacies.

I don’t think it will be an outsized gain like last time. It doesn’t have to be though. A 10% raise at DOS would put them at $548 for the top rate and go from there.

My guess is 5% and than 3%/yr for the remainder of the contract (final top rate around $590) at the legacies. They’ll probably work on vacation and work rules as well. My impression is that they don’t see retirement as a major area of need anymore since every pay raise automatically increases what 18% plus cash over cap pays out.

Well, they ain’t going backwards. We clearly need to be aiming at legacy pay rates plus some percentage in order to maintain competitiveness. A snap up clause would be great, but I don’t have my hopes up as FedEx failed to secure one. Of course, that’s all before we even talk about trip trades, trip change premiums, minimizing circadian shifts, adding 117 equivalent protections, a retirement bump, cash over cap, etc. You get the idea…it’s a long list, and while we certainly won’t get all of it, it’s going to take a solid 90% of what I just mentioned and then some to earn my yes vote. Make no mistake; for a whole lot of us ‘newer than 2014’ folk, this contract is going to have to be fairly epic for us to vote it in. “Best we could negotiate” and “there’s only so big a slice of the pie” excuses won’t cut it this time around.

As a post 2014 hire, I agree that patience is wearing thin with many aspects of this job. Mediocre, at best, hotels, lagging pay (relative to legacies, inflation, and soon FedEx), lagging pension (relative to both inflation and now FedEx), 15 yr instead of 12 yr pay tables, no cash over cap, miserably lagging line construction, lagging trip trade system, lagging Reserve rules, lagging reschedule protections, and a worn out fleet. Obviously, some things are completely out of the EB’s and NC’s hands, but some things are their job to obtain for us at the negotiating table.

another post 2014 hire here that agrees, there is nothing to give back this time around.
Everything is compounded by the treatment we receive from QA, crew scheduling, etc…
The scheduling department is run worse than a regional or ACMI…