You are assuming that all of those 452 current crewmembers will be staying put. Some will retire, some will upgrade to ANC CA, some will upgrade to Lower 48 CA, and some will bid out. Also, some of the new hires and vacancy awardees will move and not deal with the commute.

So while I agree the commute will get worse I don't think it will be directly proportional to the number of ANC vacancies. What worries me more about the commute is if after they get a couple more 747s they have them continue eastward to CGN from SDF. That might make more sense than having 3 half empty 747s fly SDF-ANC-Asia every night. It would be great to get rid of the ANC-SDF-ANC death march but would suck for commuting to ANC.

- Hope you're correct.

..or they'll pull 76s from ALL Atlantic crossing and use MDs instead. Apparently the company is very happy with CGN maintenance on our MDs (some of the mechanics were Lufthansa trained).
Eventually they'll pull 76s from Pacific crossings (use 74s and MDs instead) and now there's the extra bonus of making 76 bunks irrelevant. Score! I doubt 74s will be seeing Atlantic crossing as long as we have MDs.
I'm frequently wrong though so the first 74 Atlantic crossing will probably be flown tomorrow.. :rolleyes:

Yes......please read my whole statement.

While predicting network planning is voodoo science at best, lift in Asia and domestic lift are the primary drivers as to the placement of the 747-8. Asia is desperate for lift but many airports are slot limited. As such, they need the biggest equipment available.
Picked up line number from Russian carrier, first UPS -8F delivery by Sept., for a total of three aircraft delivered next year. Total of 8 747-8's by Oct 2018.

What year and month does #2265 translate to?
Did you use IPA's Seniority Anysis for your predictions?

I'm guessing the most junior captain will become an '04 hire. Was the first '04 class in January?

I used a FICO score calculator and 3 dice for my prediction. ;)

https://d18l82el6cdm1i.cloudfront.ne...132.62ZYzc.jpg

Nov and Dec classes in 2004.

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I did, and I highly doubt it will end up that way too.

;)

A few company mock bids will be interesting, but I bet the last minute system bidders ;) will make any mock bid predictions highly inaccurate.

:D

Maybe you can't read. Ever thought of that?

2265 is 4-07 I predicted this would go to 2006-07 hires, I still believe it will.