Originally Posted by aerospacepilot

I certainly have. I decided that I do not want to be a career airline pilot. I held the view that the price of oil was only going to go up and up and up over 2 years ago (when oil was $60/barrel). As a result, I decided to get all 250 hours for my commercial as fast as possible (when avgas was still $3-$4 a gallon). Every time I had some spare time, I went flying. I did not wait until avgas hit $7-$8 a gallon to build flight time. That is one example of me putting my money where my mouth is.

I decided if I want to fly for a living, it will be as a test pilot or as a corporate or fractional pilot. I think the airlines are going to shrink until only the people who can afford to fly will be able to fly. That means more aircraft cuts (yes, more than the 400 or so aircraft that have already been cut this year). This will be good for airlines over the long term (along with merging and brand consolidation), but I think it will sting quite a bit over the next few years. Oil prices are not going to go down, therefore I am avoiding the airlines. They have the most to lose.

Despite all this, there is no shortage of new pilots dropping $70,000 of borrowed money to go to an academy like ATP when they could get the same flight training for $40,000 at their local FBO. When they are done, they have these massive $70,000 loans with close to $1,000 a month payments. That makes these pilots desperate. There is no shortage of pilots going to fly for airlines like GoJet, Skybus, and even Mesa is finding hundreds of new pilots. I just don't want to be a part of this.

I am going to stay away from the airlines. My aviation career is most likely going to end up as a test pilot or a corporate/fractional pilot. I know the average American cannot afford a transcon flight on an airliner with oil over $200/barrel, so I am not going to bet my career on it. We are not that far away. And if flying for a living does not work out, I will have an Aerospace Engineering degree that I can use.


Just because someone has been a pilot for longer (Lighteningspeed) does not mean they have a better understanding of what is going to happen to the price of oil. I believe the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up. So far my predictions have been right (feel free to look up my previous posts). If oil prices drop, it will only be temporary (so hedge, hedge, hedge). I don't think it will ever dip below triple digits. If you want to make a prediction of the price of oil a year from now, I will be happy to make one myself and we can see who is closer.