Originally Posted by
caddis
Bar
I am not as worried as you for two reasons
First I do not believe this pilot group will allow the sale of 100 seat scope.Too many of us have been harmed by scope sales in the past. For the most part the captains I fly with agree with that.
Second, a lot of those orders are not firm orders. I think when the time comes a Delta comes to the table with firm orders the slots will open. Remember the boys in Seattle owe us. Also do not under estimate Anderson and his ability to put Airbus against Boeing.
I don't care who we order airplanes from, whether it is A, B, or C, it will be flown by mainline pilots.
Yeah I wonder if some of that Paris hype is meaningless "letters of intent" etc. Also, its very common for many "orders" to be leasing companies...the same leasing companies that would have done the lease back to airlines minutes after they took delivery of "their" planes and then signed them away only to lease them back the same day.
I think we will be able to get airframes. As for training, once the move to ATL is complete, that facility should have more than enough to accommodate everything currently held in NATCO sans the 9, and if more space is needed I'm sure we can kick out some of the dinosaur stuff that lives there.
As for Republic and their ilk, the likelihood of them being a long term stand alone player is extremely remote, as is the chances of not just a 100 seat scope sale, but a 100-130 seat scope sale. Not going to happen. They will offload their orders and existing next gen narrow bodies (if they even take any) with maybe a nominal price premium, or we might get them for cheap when they restructure.
Even with fuel where it is, we are hammering away at our debt which will bode very well for when we buy/lease our next fleets.