Originally Posted by
Subpilot
Your comment would have been great without your first sentence thrown in, but anyway... You are not calculating the fact that Eagle only sends 50% thru the 824 then it is only 35% up to a maximum of 25 per month. I still think that a 2011 hire will be luck to get the AA call inside of 10years. I like your optimism though and wish for it to become reality. One can only wait and see.
Just looking at the next 5 years, there's only scheduled to be about 800 retirements, but I'm sure more then that will leave. A new contract with provisions allowing AA pilots to be scheduled to fly more will subtract from the need to hire more rather than less.
Looks like the bottom Eagle guys who still have AA numbers will be all over a year from now and then the pilots part of the 824 arbitration come over at 50% of the class I believe, not to exceed 20/month. I'd think AA could keep a steady pace of classes at 35/40 month comprising new-hires, returning recall pilots and some AE guys of the next group, but I'd think that unless AA really ramps up the class size, less then 20 AE pilots per month would be coming aboard over the next 5 years and that it would take about that long to get through the 824 group.
Then it goes to 35% class for the new group of AE pilots starting about 2016 or so and who knows how long it will take to go down that list ?
It's a good deal I guess if it works as planned, but then again the original Letter flowthrough which had more provisions and protections resulted in only about 140 AE pilots in the first 10 years, so I'm not convinced this will work out as planned for AE pilots.