Originally Posted by
rickt86
Yet people in the past got hired at XXX major at 300 hours without being part of a target group but i guess that COULD NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN yet everything seems to keep running in circles in this industry.
The phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results" doesn't mean anything to you, does it?
But heck you COULD just read some books.
You mean the books that describe folks hired at United & TWA and other airlines decades ago, between WWII and Vietnam, when the US airline industry exploded in growth that cannot happen today due to market saturation?
If 20,000 people retire, trust me the majors will be scrambling, but it also depends on scope, and many other factors...basically this is too complicated for the INTERNET.
20,000 people aren't going to retire all at once, and you seem to be conveniently forgetting the tens of thousands of highly qualified pilots who are unemployed or employed outside of regional airlines that would be interested in working at a company like AA.
Any "pilot shortage" will occur at bottom-tier operators offering comparatively weak compensation and/or lifestyle like regional airlines, charter outfits, some corporations and emerging airlines internationally - there will NEVER be an actual shortage of qualified pilots wanting to work at top-tier domestic US operators.
But by all means, keep "waiting for the shortage to come" if that gives you the strength to motor on...