Originally Posted by
AceOnTheRiver
800 guys to go until hiring. So with an acceptance rate of 20% that is 160 guys. That doesn't count guys coming off deferments or the second August class. If they go to 65 a month then AA would have to hire in October for November class dates. These dates could slide depending on retirements. If the stock market stay down for the rest of the month then all bets are off since there could anywhere from 100-500 retirements.
The 65/month is not happening soon. The preliminary count for Sept. 21 is a total of 16, with
8 of those being previous deferrals. The current rate is less than half of that etherial 65 number.
It sounds like they have added at least one reinforcement to the calling process, but if all this retirement conjecture materializes, that could put a huge short term load on the training resources and could, virtually stop recalls in the short term.
One 777/767 captain retires. That generates at least 5 training events? It ripples all the way back to the -80/737. All the crystal ball number of dozens or scores of retirements would exceed the training capacity.
With the section 6 discussions mired in wet concrete, there is conjecture about parking wide body jets due to lack of captains who choose to retire soon.