I understand the dim view Special, and lets hope your not right although I'd hedge my bets and head overseas to make some real dough just in case.

As an anti-thesis, consider this:

-Other majors are flying around a whole bunch of aircraft they could have parked a long time ago, but they are still flying them because (just a guess) they are paid for mainly or their leases are low and most importantly they are full!
The American consumer (so far) has been surprisingly resilient with travel even as the flat economy teeters on the edge of a double dip. IATA forecasts are strong, despite the slowdown. Bottom line, those airplanes are still there for a reason and I don't think most majors park full airplanes at these ticket prices (let's not forget all the fees and falling fuel prices, albeit temporary) unless the bottom just falls out of demand or.....(wait for it), your getting ready for a merger!

-I think the same is with the United crews. We've heard about the excess, but thats been going on since the furlough hasn't it? If they're so tight on the hiring at the CAL side then I find it hard to believe the bean counters have one extra pilot than they think is necessary given the propensity of United to furlough at the drop of a hat. The extra fat is there for a reason...what that is I don't know but I do know, if some accountant thought your snotty jet flying butt was expendable, you'd get a nasty FedEx the next day.

-The guys at the top are expensive! Medical, salary (despite the huge cut in their minds at least). Are you telling me they'd rather keep them around versus replacing them with some fit as a fiddle green horn at $35 an hour? I think they want retirements as soon as they can get them and that means movement. Even under your 2014 scenario, my bet is Mother U offers more buyouts especially if a contract goes in that ups all those -400 drivin multi millionaire's pay (tic).

At least that's a current theory. Subject to change.