Originally Posted by
SOTeric
Are these the same hacks that consistently told me "even with the age 60 increase I wont fly past 60"?
How many retirements have we had in the last 3.5 years?
These guys will fly to the bitter end.
On the UAL side, 'early' retirements are running a littlle less than 1/month. Zero to 3 in any given month. A lot of months with zero retirements. UAL's SSC minutes have retirements listed.
Originally Posted by
CALFO
One of the last items mentioned in the company's contract "offer" that was published last month is a $200,000 buyout for early retirements. It didn't state what the conditions of that buyout are, but I suspect that a lot of senior guys will be hanging around until a contract is signed so they can get their 200k (if it is including in a real TA) plus retro.
Published?
This is what we've got on UALALPO's website Q&A:
Why does the MEC refuse to make known the details of the company’s most recent offers in negotiations?
Answer: The National Mediation Board has specifically asked if we would not release details of negotiations, and was pleased to hear that our consistent practice has been to not, as they recognize that this makes getting to an agreement more difficult. It would be worse than foolish to go against the wishes of the government agency that has complete and total authority to make the decision over if and when we can engage in a lawful strike.
Contract negotiations are interwoven, and have to be considered in their entirety. To allow ourselves to become fixated on individual contractual provisions is akin to fixating on one instrument in the cockpit. The JNC will continue to update us on the big picture and the overall progress of JCBA negotiations. This has proved to be the most effective of getting the industry-leading contract we deserve and have earned.
Originally Posted by
Coto Pilot
Either way, next year things will change most likely. There should be a contract, although it may take a strike to get it. The spool up for 12/12/12 retirements will have to begin by Spring or early Summer. The guys holding out for a lump sum will bail as soon as they are eligible. Work rule improvements will require more pilots along with FAA rest rule changes. The guys going to CO that would prefer a United domicile will bail at the first chance which will require a training event at United along with one at CO to fill their vacancy. What am I missing?
I'll detail lead turning the training pipeline later in this post but if they aren't recalling Jan 2012 and hiring by April 2012, they're going to get behind the 8 ball very quickly.
I find it hard to believe that the company would offer a lump sum. That would increase their training pipeline problems. See below.
Originally Posted by
SpecialTracking
United has consistently said that have an excess of pilots. I have heard numbers thrown around but lets say 200-300 currently. Throw into the mix the parking of UAL aircraft in 2012. They could exchange a UAL 757 for every guppy that comes on line at CAL. They could park other UAL aircraft for the 787s that arrive at CAL. This translates into a greater excess of UAL pilots.
United might not furlough, but I would not expect any upward movement since it might take up to 2014 to reign in the excess of UAL pilot population.
You're not taking into account the required training pipeline once we get regular retirements again.
CAL/UAL is looking at ~40 retirements/month. Assume 20/side.
Assume 4 training events/retirement (conservative)
Assume 3 months from start of training to end of line check.
20 x 4 x 3 = 240 pilots in the training pipeline.
Add in PIs - another 300 or so.
So you're looking at a need for ~1100 pilots on both sides just to fill the training pipeline. And that's a very lowball number.
How much lead turning's required to get the pipeline going?
Let's assume all retiring pilots have 600 hours in their sick bank and burn all of it at the end. That's not going to happen but this assumption won't matter once we're past Dec 2012 as there will be a fairly consistent average monthly retirement rate. So let's say that you don't get any use out of retiring pilots in the last 6 months prior to retirement. That puts the leading edge of retirements at June 2012.
Lead turning June 2012 retirements means that the training pipeline has to be running 240 pilots no later than March 2012.
Add in another couple of months to spool up a large pool of PIs. We're now at Jan 2012.
I've never spoken to Jeff Nooger or anyone else on the SSC but they should be well aware of how many bodies and lead turn time for the training pipeline.
If the company tries to limp through summer 2012 without a training pipeline up and running full speed, they will likely be in the hole for several years because they will need newhires just to fill the pipeline; we're not going to see every furloughee return immediately after recall.
Originally Posted by
Coto Pilot
Another restraint mgmt has is the ratio of express to mainline.
We are close to the domestic cap, if that drops they have to start paring RJ's.
Are you sure about being close to the cap on outsourced flying? I was jumping up and down a few years ago, giving the ALPO reps an earful because block hour numbers/ratios on C2003 were blank for several years. And when the ratios finally got filled, I looked at the numbers and got even more angry - it allowed for sharp mainline block hour reductions coupled with additional outsourcing.
On the bright side, every airline is going to have to fire up their training pipelines. This will cause a sudden drop in 'available' pilots and decimate the ranks of our regional partners. Management will be forced to upguage and reduce frequency on some routes because of this. Whether or not it's a temporary condition is yet to be seen. I remember Bob Crandall stating that there never was and never will be a pilot shortage - they simply move minimum requirements up or down to ensure a sufficient supply of pilots.
Looking at the big picture, it may be the line pilot's best interest to drag contract negotiations through summer 2012, as pilot leverage will increase considerably. However, all pilots better plan on getting blamed for flight cancellations in summer 2012.