Originally Posted by
Winged Wheeler
Just a thumbnail analysis, but here goes:
From 1903 to the mid 1950s we went from the Wright Flyer to the (commercial) 707 and many supersonic military craft. There were qualitative improvements in thrust, range, size, speed, aerodynmaic control, etc.
Since the mid 1950s I would argue that the improvemnets have been quantitative, but not qualitative (an A380 follows logically from a 707 but is not revolutionary).
The FAA was created in the mid 1950s as well. The supervision by gov't has made aviation much safer, but this has retarded progress.
The pilotless craft will never come unless we change our acceptable level of risk (and the regulatory oversight that follows from it).
I'm not promoting less safety--simply stating that TANSTAAFL.
WW
It seems like you are stating that the government had not been involved in aviation until the creation of the FAA. Prior to the FAA we had the CAA and the NACA (predecessor to NASA), prior to that there was the Aeronautics Board. We also had the Airmail Act of 1925, which basically established commercial airlines through the use of Post Office contracts, these contracts would pay more for aircraft that could fly further, at night, etc. Not to mention the Air Commerce Act of 1926, which allowed organizations such as the Aeronautics Board, CAA, and FAA to be created. The U.S. Government has been involved in the aviation industry since its inception.
I agree with RickAir, it will be awhile before the infrastructure is established to allow for pilotless aircraft. You need more than just airports to have unmanned airliners, and the cost of that alone would be prohibitive to "fix" a system that is not broken, let alone to maintain that system. It becomes even more cost prohibitive when you consider international flights.