The first "real" flying job after flight instructing is pretty exciting, congratulations for getting yourself to the point where you have to make this decision.

I admire you for realizing so early in your career that there is more to a flying job than just getting hired, some guys never seem to learn that lesson. Also, I'd say if more pilots spent the same energy working to improve their own working conditions as they did criticizing other groups, the industry would be a better place.

So about your question, think of it in terms of playing musical chairs, if the music stops (i.e. hiring and upgrades) where do you want to sit for a while? Not to dredge up the age 60 debate in your thread, but the if the retirement age does go to 65, it could be an example of what could stagnate hiring in the industry for a few years. If the upgrade path doesn't go the way you expect, which company would offer the best quality of life?

Another factor you'll want to consider is representation, having a union on the property is a big plus in my opinion. Union representation provides a structured path to improve and maintain pay and quality of work life. Keep in mind that the quality of any union is only as good as the elected representatives and more importantly the collective resolve of the pilot group. Unfortunately there is no free ride in an effective union, but the benefits of group participation are worth it.

I wish I could tell you which company to accept a job offer from, but ultimately it's up to you. Best of luck in your decision.