Nine years ago, when the big airline bankruptcies took off after 9/11, me and another UAL pilot had a few beers and talked about the future of the industry, and where the jobs would end up, pay and benefit wise. We made a little side bet.

I thought that the "limit" of pay cuts would be 130 and hour for a narrow body captain and 80 for an FO. My buddy guessed 100 Captain/65 FO. We both based it on the same thing - when the pay got to a certain point, so many FO's would quit they wouldn't be able to staff their cockpits.

I now think that we were both wrong. The pay is approaching 100 Capt/65 FO when corrected for 9 years of inflation. And nobody is quitting.

How low will we go? Who knows. Look at the recall numbers.