Originally Posted by
scambo1
Well, I guess we now know our MEC's stance on scope.
Yes we do, but not in the way you think.
Our Joint Venture agreement is industry leading. We WANT
productivity balance and sharing as these virtual mergers (end runs around foreign ownership rules) proliferate around the globe. In effect, the Joint Venture Language does what I have advocated for years in the form of "inclusive scope." All new flying is automatically included and a portion of it has to be ours. We need these agreements with China, Australia, Central and South America in addition to our European venture.
As I understand the language (and I am no expert) the Company and partners have to maintain a rolling three year
average. If the numbers get skewed on one end, they would have to be equally skewed on the other to comply. It is not as some have stated a "snapshot" once every three years to reset.
If the Company were to violate, it would be a huge grievance and a similarly huge settlement. The Reps have been told (and they've been getting pinged on this) that the Company intends to comply, Here's a post from the top Expert, which I have been authorized to share (AZ is Alitalia)
Delta's EASK right now, on a 12 month rolling basis ending Oct 2011 is 47.6%. As discussed with the MEC previously, this is about the same EASK as when AZ was added. So, with nobody adding/deleting traffic, just the addition of AZ to the mix, our EASK should be and is around 47.2% ... we will grow over time to 50%, which is about 7 more roundtrip transatlantic 76ER trips in EASK terms ... . This will be accomplished in the next two years as the DL aircraft come out of the lie flat mod lines. So, the new JV with AZ added is a gain for the Delta pilots.
Now, about their growth. The growth (of Air France) is total system growth, inside and outside the JV. AF has recently started their Province basing and have added significant domestic capacity to combat the inroads that Ryanair and Easyjet are inflicting on their business. And AF/KLM is still losing a lot of money. On the transatlantic, the EASKs are going to remain about the same for each side, as AF/KL/AZ are pulling out capacity along with Delta. Remember, that because they fly much larger equipment across the Atlantic, they pull less flights out, but the EASKs per aircraft are more. When we return to growth, we will have to add more aircraft, because we fly smaller EASK aircraft in the transatlantic, to keep the EASKs at even.
We are in a new 3 year window which won't be measured until March 2014, as I mentioned above. When we get to 49.75% on a rolling 12 month basis, that will trigger yet another start of a measuring period. If it occurs prior to March 2014, it obviates this current measurement period. If it doesn't, then we will have the 2014 measurement period (on a 3 year basis).
I believe we will see a return to the 50% level sometime in 2013, but that's just an opinion. Nonetheless, we have a measurement if we don't make it to 49.75 on a 12 month lookback, and if we do, it starts a new period, but at that point we are basically at 50%.
I would also remind you that while today we are at 47.6% on an EASK basis, that translates to 60.5% on a pilot block hour basis, which is jobs.
Yes, it does appear from the Contract language and commentary that the Company does have a three year window, but if the AVERAGE is out of compliance it would trigger a grievance large enough to (insert mother of all grievance metaphor here).