Originally Posted by
FlyZ
I'm concerned that the big "wave" of hiring everyone is counting on could mostly or completely bypass Delta. We will be out there past where the waves break, bobbing on our little surfboard while guys at other places catch the monsters and end up WAY out in front of us. Think about it...
One scenario: company gives another little bit of flying to AS. ALPA and MGT: it's nothing, just .5% of our flying and plus it helps us make money. Company finds a way to end around the AF JV restrictions. DALPA and MGT: don't worry, they are only out of compliance by 1%...we will give them a break for now because we are actually making money. Company pulls back flying by another 1% YOY like in this AE. ALPA and MGT: well we have to do this. This is a bad economy and look how high fuel prices are. Company replaces a few more 88/90 routes with the big RJs they already have. ALPA and MGT: don't be concerned, it's only .5% of our flying, and plus look at all the 50 seaters we are parking!
Well, none of those sound too horrible, but add up those block hour cuts. 12,000 x (.5% + 1% + 1% + .5%) = 360 pilots not needed in a year. And how many retirements do we have coming, on average? I bet a the next 5+ years (maybe even 10) would average to around 360. So I don't put too much stock in the consolation "it'll happen soon enough, and once they start hiring they won't be able to stop."
"Show me the money" is great, but you damn well better show me an iron-clad scope wallet to put that money in. We gained a little stock in the merger, but I guarantee we lost much, much more than that in $ and in QOL as we have stagnated and slipped backwards.
Valid concern. Reality is consolidation is not over and many ofnthe options may not be end to end, meaning there is some overlap which leads to less employees needed.
If the Euro Zone folds you may see Foreign Ownership approved to the level DAL may be able to merge or acquire AF. Just keep it on your radar. If they go broke they will be looking anywhere for investors.