I don't recall how many cards are needed to force a vote. I was under the impression that it was at or around 6000.
Sailing, from my observations at work with crew and jumpseaters, I would say that a third are staunch ALPA supporters. The other third are DPA supporters. The last third are all precarious fence sitters.
They are waiting for the last straw.
For some, its FPL and the mismanagement of the resolutions addressing it.
Others, its scope and JV's. For most though, it is the next contract. A sub par opener or TA will likely result in the replacing of DALPA.
Additionally, not one person in a crew lounge, jumpseat, or other crew members has ever stated that they are expecting or desire less than SWA adjusted.
Where do you get your numbers from? Perhaps sitting around at lunch with the guys at 1457 Virginia Avenue. You know, The Happy Budda?