Originally Posted by
scambo1
Nerd;
There are a couple of fallacies in your analysis IMO. First, I agree they will survive despite the 4th floor's apparent scheming to the contrary. The management team at AMR is awful, I mean they just f-in suck. They have painted themselves in a corner by focusing on their stock performance and bonuses, very much at the expense of running a company. Pilot pay does not make or break an airline, management, either good or bad does. The new fuel efficient fleet has to be actually flying in service and generating revenue to be competitive, until that happens, its just orders for press release. I agree that if AMR pilots vote for LCC pay and work rules, that will complicate our section 6.
If AMR enters ch11, which analysts are predicting, they (AMR management) have lost control and anything is possible. Who knows what handshake deals have already taken place with creditors and other airlines.
You are right, with a CH11 filing, and only 6 months as DIP, they will lose control of their company and its assets in CH11. The only way they do not is if there is an external force that prevents airlines like DAL and SWA from making better deals to the creditors, and they can. Just the fact that they can take one competitor off the map would probably be enough for the creditors to bite. DAL has shown it can make money in a horrible economy, and do it will while shrinking. Not fun for us, but awesome for the Street.