Originally Posted by
FloridaGator
This is a great thread and excellent discussion. I agree all the posts that declare that there isn't and never will be a pilot "shortage".
Management has either made things happen or some outside factor happened to negate any true shortage.
9-11: All the majors who only recently got the best contracts that any of us will ever see got to use force majeur to begin furloughing. No pilot shortage.
9-11 led to all the bankruptcies which not only drastically reduced the awesome pay... but massive work work rule reductions (less pilots needed) and additional scope relief (more outsourcing of 70 seat jobs = less major jobs and no hiring).
Then the age 65 rule. This normally would have just delayed the shortage for 5 years until approximately this christmas but......
Then we had MERGER MANIA!!!!! This has had the biggest affect on our beloved pilot shortage.
The numbers showed that Continental had the most retirements and due to the merger with UAL.... ALL of those retirements are now offset by all the furloughs at UAL. Even this being said.... UAL/CAL does not see a need to hire until 2020. This projection takes into account a few other things.... like all of the outsourcing UAL did with 100 seat aircraft and eliminating the 737 fleet as well as reduction in route overlap between the two carriers.
You can find similar themes in other mergers like DAL NWA, but this appears to have the BIGGEST affect on the lack of hiring.
Looking at age 65 retirement numbers the next big explosive period of retirements occurs in the 2020's. My guess is that managements are not concerned with pilot hiring 8 years from now or could have ideas behind making the "next" pilot shortage non-existant as well.
yep, even the biggest Koolaid servers, like FltOps.com are saying there will be no shortage at the majors.. only at the regionals, and 2nd tier jobs..
Airline Pilot Central - Future airline pilot hiring - a Q&A with Louis Smith
I don’t think the U.S. major airlines will have a pilot shortage. Plus, it’s important to define what the term “pilot shortage” means. To me, it’s when companies pay for pilots to get necessary training to become minimally qualified. The major airlines are a long way from that and with a mobile work force and a highly-unionized pilot group, they will offer whatever it takes to attract qualified pilots. It’s a totally different story at the feeder airlines and the foreign carriers. I expect the feeder airlines (regionals) will need to spend money on low-time pilots to reach the minimums, especially with new regulations coming redefining the ATP.