Great post FloridaGator. The majors have no shortage of pilots. Neither do the regionals. The majors still have consolidation, shrinkage, and outsourcing at their disposal. The regionals have larger aircraft and reassignment of contracts at their disposal.
I keep getting told by the majors that this is the best opportunity in recent history for piots. I've heard that before. The builder of my condo told me in 2005 that I had made a fortune by simply buying the place. I'm still stuck with it, and it's worth a lot less than a fortune.
These guys (major CEO's) aren't dumb or reactive. They are planning for the retirements. It will be their way of shrinking without ****ing anyone off. They won't have to furlough. They just let the pilot ranks shrink on their own and continue to outsource larger flying to the regionals.
An I a pessimist or a realist? I hope neither. But I will print this and save it for a laugh in 10 years. Or a cry?