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Old 11-29-2011 | 06:13 AM
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Elvis90
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From: MSP7ERB
Default Possible merger with US Airways?

Now that AA has dropped a bunch of debt like the other airlines have done, the next likely step seems to be more consolidation. This article was published in late October 2011. Plus US Air stock has jumped up 10% this morning.

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American-US Air Merger Would Bolster The Industry - Seeking Alpha

Post-bankruptcy, AMR's new, less leveraged capital structure could better handle higher capex and new aircraft. Throw in a merger with U.S. Airways, and it's a win/win/win scenario -- for the two airlines, labor, as well as the industry and its capital providers.

Of course, what looks good on paper may be impossible to implement because of various pockets of resistance, especially from labor. The devil is in the details, and I'm simply making the case that from a strategic fit perspective, the merger scenario makes the most sense. It meets the various tests of consistency for all stakeholders. Moreover, it improves the industry’s ability to absorb the massive new costs that are likely imposed upon it by a government that must reduce an unsustainable federal deficit.

AMR management will obviously want to remain in control in any merger scenario. This may not be the best outcome. Many, at least on Wall Street, believe that the best candidate to run the combined company would be US Airways’ Doug Parker. He is a realist who has nothing invested in maintaining American's self-image that it is the leading airline in the industry. This was once correct, but is no longer so, with the industry's competitive evolution. In my view, Parker would manage American for an optimal outcome for all stakeholders, not attempt to achieve a standing that is no longer achievable.
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