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Old 12-03-2011, 06:56 PM
  #82368  
Bucking Bar
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
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Originally Posted by alfaromeo View Post
Just to make the math easy, let's say that before Alitalia joins the alliance, Delta has 500 units of flying and AF/KLM have 500 units. Delta is in a production balance of 50%, 500 divided by 1000. Now add Alitalia which has 100 units of flying. Delta now has 500 units of a 1100 point total. Immediately Delta has 45% of the balance, even though they haven't changed anything.

ALPA negotiated that we will now get 50% of the new 1100 point total or 550 units. Clearly, everyone can see that is a win for Delta pilots and everyone can see how the AF/KLM pilots feel a little set back by this. If the totals had gone to 450 and 650 we would be screaming.

Now, how do we get to this balance. Well you can have Alitalia shut down tomorrow and put their pilots out of work, but maybe you can see how Alitalia would not think that is a great idea. You could have AF/KLM shut down operations to the tune of Alitalia's current operation, but maybe you can see how AF/KLM would not like it. You could also have Delta flood the market with new capacity, to the tune of HALF of what Alitalia has today and drive our fares down and lose a lot of money.

Or...........you could give the alliance a time period to let Delta adjust up to the new production balance. Delta would either grow, AF/KLM/AZ would shrink or both. Either way, any rational person would see how Delta having half of a bigger pie is a win for Delta pilots, and most rational people would understand that you can't just move transatlantic capacity around like hotels in Monopoly.

So, we will be below the end state production balance as we slowly adjust to the new environment. We will grow into a higher amount of flying with time. We will then be able to monitor the new, better for Delta pilots production balance on a more rational basis. Does that make sense?
Alpha,

Agree with everything you wrote in a perfect World. But, thus far AF/KLM have been expanding while Delta is pulling capacity. AF/KLM have 76 large widebodies coming, we have none. Many people sense that management is not adhering to the agreement in good faith. 12 months is sufficient time for seasonal flying adjustments. 36 months is too long IMHO.

As you state, these things do not change overnight. If current trends continue, what assurance do we have that another scope concession will not be the fix? How do we know that this fix will not be a surprise MOU, or grievance settlement that we learn about after our bargaining agent has executed the deal?

... and no Carl, the DPA is not the answer. DPA can't be trusted until they back down from the tired justifications for last decade's outsourcing.
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