Originally Posted by
alfaromeo
Just to make the math easy, let's say that before Alitalia joins the alliance, Delta has 500 units of flying and AF/KLM have 500 units. Delta is in a production balance of 50%, 500 divided by 1000. Now add Alitalia which has 100 units of flying. Delta now has 500 units of a 1100 point total. Immediately Delta has 45% of the balance, even though they haven't changed anything.
ALPA negotiated that we will now get 50% of the new 1100 point total or 550 units. Clearly, everyone can see that is a win for Delta pilots and everyone can see how the AF/KLM pilots feel a little set back by this. If the totals had gone to 450 and 650 we would be screaming.
Now, how do we get to this balance. Well you can have Alitalia shut down tomorrow and put their pilots out of work, but maybe you can see how Alitalia would not think that is a great idea. You could have AF/KLM shut down operations to the tune of Alitalia's current operation, but maybe you can see how AF/KLM would not like it. You could also have Delta flood the market with new capacity, to the tune of HALF of what Alitalia has today and drive our fares down and lose a lot of money.
Or...........you could give the alliance a time period to let Delta adjust up to the new production balance. Delta would either grow, AF/KLM/AZ would shrink or both. Either way, any rational person would see how Delta having half of a bigger pie is a win for Delta pilots, and most rational people would understand that you can't just move transatlantic capacity around like hotels in Monopoly.
So, we will be below the end state production balance as we slowly adjust to the new environment. We will grow into a higher amount of flying with time. We will then be able to monitor the new, better for Delta pilots production balance on a more rational basis. Does that make sense?
A little.. but it seems as if we are competing with all the JV partners as a collective, and we are out there by ourselves. Kind of like playing best ball against three other golfers. Don't know about you, but I ain't a scratch golfer. In your example, it seems that if Alitalia were to shut down, all that flying would be shifted to KLM or airFrog, but if WE expand it gets evenly distributed... Something doesn't seem right about that...
And no matter how you slice it, a 3 year balance timing is too long, especially if it can be reset every other month. Those kinds of things can be tweaked.. shuffled around by these management teams to whipsaw us against one another. No... I really don't like what I am hearing here..