Every Boyd projection ever made has Eagle shrinking into oblivion. Here is my question: If all the ERJs are parked and most of the CRJs are contracted out, then who is going to provide feed for AA? Is AA going to not have any feed after bankruptcy? We are talking about 250ish Eagle aircraft in the Boyd analysis. I do not think that it is feasible to outsource even in 5 years that much capacity (equivalent of 50 a/c per year @ ~45 seat average). Even if AMR was to just hand over airplanes to other regionals, there is still time investment in getting operations running within the AA structure. And the other airlines would have to staff them, which is also lead time. Why on earth would AMR spend the last year investing in training 700 pilots to furlough them and hand over the operation to other carriers (not wholly-owned) who are not even in a position to operate.
Alot of the discussion hinges on scope, because if unlimited 70+ seat scope is the result, then it is much worse for Eagle, as all the <50 seat a/c become obsolete. If the 70+ seat scope is limited then 50 seat a/c may still have a viable part in the AA feed equation, and then the attrition may be fairly benign (135s and 140s).