Originally Posted by
gloopy
Not sure where you got that. You'd have to be living under a rock not to see that AMR is in play, from multipile angles and numerous scenarios. Most of the DL speculation centers around how many of our own will have to eat a furlough over this, regardless of what happens to AA or AE. Also, if you've read any of the posts, you'd see plenty of talk about the potential slicing and dicing of the DL network is a top concern.
I'd not get too worked up just yet. AMR didn't go into this without knowing other buzzards would circle and in fact, the new CEO admitted it from the very beginning. That's why they did it with 5 billion in the bank.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
One thing is for certain: if there is an AA fragmentation it won't be because of Delta. It will be happening anyway and DL may or may not play a part in it. Odds are that other airlines will as well, regardless of how much AA survives in tact and/or fully merges.
AA is in no more danger of fragmentation then the other carriers were previously in the decade during their filings (I'll bet at least half those on this board.....you know, the merger/fragmentation experts posting now
weren't even in the industry then). In fact, with AMR's cash, they're LESS likely to succomb to fragmentation unless they WANT to. A possibility, but not a probability. Doesn't do much for all those running around ridiculously now like decapitated fowl, squawking, "done deal, done deal" out of their headless stumps.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
Also, AE will be shrunk dramatically unless AA survives as a stand alone with very little asset sales...AND...if the AA pilots gut their own scope. But if they are willing to do that to the extent necessary to preserve AE (replacing 50 seaters with 100/100+seaters) they would be just as willing to bargain away other portions of their scope to facilitate a more favorable fragmentation even if that ends up happening.
There wont be much bargaining in Chapter 11. AMR will get what it wants on scope, but I agree mergers and fragmentations usually always involve workforce reductions.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
Other than maybe a very few, very senior, pilots living in ORD, MIA and DFW, no one at Delta is salivating over this because for every scenario that would cause positive movement for the DL list, there is one that causes significant stagnation and several that will cause massive career changing furloughs.
Other than running up the price for a competitor in a bidding war or getting a very few assets here or there in a full (unlikely) or partial (more likely) or very partial (most likely) fragmentation, a full on merger with AA will be absolutely horriffic for DL pilots.
The above is all the more reason not to get too worked up over it. When a company like AA goes into restructuring it's normal for others to persue all or parts of it. Doesn't mean they'll be successful. If AA was on the ropes with feeble cash and assets when they filed, they'd have DIP financing and would be FAR more vulnerable to merge/frag as others loaning the money to complete chapter 11 call the shots, but AMR is firmly in the driver's seat. Still, it's too attractive to sit on the sidelines and not participate, if even only to drive up the bidding to maximize competitive stregth by making a potential winning bidder weaker upon acquisition.
I'd advice you to join me watching the colliding, truncated fowl and blossoming feather plume of those who haven't a clue beyond their own dreams, desires and fantasies.
It's actually a classic comedy and worthy of observence......well, I'm out of beer nuts and my beverage is low, so back to the kitchen to refill for the next entertaining act of "The flying Saps".
