Originally Posted by Beechlover

From what I see on your avatar (UAL Furlough'd) sorry to see that. This industry is literally a total crap shoot! It almost makes all the due dilligence and research comical. This industry has got to be the most unstable rediculous spectacle of a circus the world has ever seen! One minute your in the number one airline that is the PLACE TO BE hiring like crazy. Not the very next year, guys are being furlough'd. I'm currently 48 so If I move to another carrier, suffice it to say that I'll spend the majority of my years there as an FO. So unless I'm furlough'd, I have no intention of seeking another airline. Where ever I choose to go is going to be it for me. Since I'd be at my "Career Airline" the value of TPIC time if I can be hired now (No TPIC) may be inconcequencial, unless of course I were to be furlough'd. I do have my own ATP Ticket so I got that goin for me lol! Again its all a crap shoot.

So the big question for my situation would be. If given the opportunity, would I be willing to risk my career to jump over there with zero TPIC. There are currently 430 FO's above me. That puts me at minimum 2 to 3 yrs away from upgrade. So with no TPIC, my view is that I am litterally putting all my eggs in one basket. If the Airline fails, I'm SIC typed in an Airbus with all the other fishes and no TPIC to be competitive to move elswhere. Hell I would probably hang it up by then and do something different outside this industry.

I mean Hell at this point, what I've learned about Virgin America actually gets me excited to work there. It's a great product in my opinion. And from what I've seen in this post deregulation era industry, Airlines seem to run the same big life cycle. The trick.., I think for me anyway.., would be to jump on at the beginning of that cycle. I mean all I need is 17 yrs, so VX is looking better and better.., if it succeeds that is. That would be the defacto "Million Dollar Question."


Here is a VERY ROUGH idea of the Post Deregulation "Airline Circle of Life." Virgin America currently being at the Start Up/Growing phase See what ya think ; )

- 'Start Up: Low Labor Costs, No Profit
- Growing: Small Labor/Fuel Increases, Small Profit
- Success: Fuel Costs Up, Profitable
- Outstanding Success: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Highly Profitable
- Still Successful: Increase Labor/Fuel Cost, Profit Plateau
- Marginal Success: Fuel Cost Increase, Profits Shrinking
- First Loss, Fuel Increase: Losses Reported
- Moderate Losses: Pay Concessions, Fuel Cost Increase, Greater Losses
- Large Losses: More Pay Concessions Fuel Increases, Furloughs/Capacity Reductions
- Bankruptcy: Reorganize, Merge or Buy Out

Rinse and repeat with a "Leaner, Meaner Airline"

Best of Luck to Us ALL!