Originally Posted by
alfaromeo
The airline business has been in a negative stability loop in the last 20 years. The highs went higher and the lows went lower. 2003-2005 pretty much signaled that something had to change. Instead of making the business a high risk gamble, through consolidation and better balance sheet management, Delta is de-risking our business and producing a model that can generate consistent profits, which by the way will fund contract improvements. Part of this new rationality will be the lack of the explosive growth followed by furlough models we have seen.
Alpha,
One of the predictions from a few years ago was that outsourcing would cause stability along a negative trend line, with lower highs and lower lows. This is coming true. This is due to the effect of whipsaw and a group of parasitic stakeholders who tack on a fee for running their own airlines (outsourcing is less efficient than a properly managed Company doing its own work & keeping its own profits).
In the past we had times of rapid advancement and times of displacement, but the overall trend was growth and advancement. With a healthier than expected travel market, retirements, engaged labor, profitability (10% margins for 2012 I hope), cheap financing, and our outstanding network reach our expectation of better isn't unreasonable.
We've delivered and executed ... the reward is ... our second, third, or fourth demotion? Where is the bottom?
I had expected a turn around in 2012. ALPA's Expert (works for us) was asked where the bottom might be. His reply had to do with knowing winning lottery numbers (which is taken as a friendly "we don't know"). Not to be critical of him, or ALPA; management makes these decisions. How forthcoming they choose to be is not under our control.
What I think we are trying to reconcile is the disconnect between the market, our performance and a trend line. As George puts it:
Originally Posted by
georgetg
Alfa, is it unrealistic to ask for de-risking our employment status and producing a model that can generate consistent seniority advancement while funding contract improvements? Or are those items mutually exclusive?
Cheers
George
I'd dare to say our MEC is in a sticky situation. Our outsourcing is a monster demanding to be fed in order to further the disconnect between our expectations and actual performance. This is not criticism, it is a genuine appreciation for the difficulty of the task.
As we figure out a way forward, we really need to be careful about solutions that sounded great in Contract 2000, but were the first to fail when put under stress. There is no stable, long term, answer other than we do our flying ourselves.