Originally Posted by
VenetianFryCook
Personally, I think the Ferguson slate has a better chance of delivering on their promises than the others do. If Silver rules in favor of the Nicolau Award, I believe EF would direct the union not to appeal, and would move forward with contract negotiations. If the seniority issue is really the roadblock, the ball would be in the company's court to advance negotiations. The company either does so, or is exposed to have other (not publicly stated) reasons for delay. If the company wants to hold things up with the seniority issue out of the way, that's a different set of circumstances.
I think Ferguson & Co. can get a CBA to pass the same way they can win the election. Many on the East say a CBA with the Nic is unratifiable. Well, assume for a moment that any of the candidates could get us, Section 22 aside, a comparable TA in terms of pay and work rules. Such an agreement should include the best parts of both East and West CBAs, improvements thereto, and pay rates between Kirby and "Delta + 1%", closer to the latter.
So, if the only difference between such a TA from Ferguson-led USAPA and USAPA led by anyone else running is the Seniority List, let's take a look. West Pilots would likely vote heavily in favor of such an agreement, faring better under Nicolau than any other method. Third-listers without a dog in the seniority fight would vote heavily in favor for the economic improvements they'd gain. The most senior East pilots (those unaffected or minimally affected by Nicolau) would likely vote in favor, to improve their pre-retirement economics. That leaves an increasingly narrow coalition of those on the East most negatively impacted by Nicolau. Ironically, that coalition is also the most negatively impacted by LOA 93. And let's not forget, no small portion of the Age 65 retirements come out of that seniority band as well. How many will look at the economics of a CBA that contains vast improvements over LOA 93, and take the money? I suspect there'd be quite a few.
This says nothing of getting a final ruling from the courts on the SLI (Silver and appeals thereto). If the group is stuck with Nicolau via court order, regardless of the outcome of the election, the calculus for who will or won't vote for a new joint CBA becomes vastly different.
There's a lot that has to happen to get to a joint contract, but I think the external roadblocks are slightly fewer for Ferguson. I could be wrong. However, as I've said before, I don't get a vote yet, so all I can do is wait and see.
You believe he can lead us to an INDUSTRY-LEADING contract with the rift between us? Remember, that is what he has said he WILL do. I don't trust people that promise the undeliverable. You will notice that Hummel has not promised a DOH contract.
How will Ferguson stop the litigation? It won't be his decision, it will be the BPRs and I feel very confident that the current BPR members won't stop it. So then we have the same type of divide that we do now. Remember, Ferguson started this litigation problem, against the advise of many on the west. He needs to see to the end, or we will be hamstrung by it, just like we have been with not following LOA 93 to the end.
I believe that even the Kirby with the Nic would pass right now, for the reason you give. The question is, would that be good for us? I think it would be tragic for you, as they Kirby has no min fleet and no E190 raises, among other other things. But as you said, those over 60(500+) won't care about those things. The west would vote it in just to seal the Nic. Be careful what you wish for.
If I were a 3rd lister I'd be most concerned with a McKee victory. I think it is the worst for all of us. So I'd vote Hummel in the first election, then Ferguson in the run off, if I still believed in him.