No problem . . . just stating fact.

The problem lies with the individuals on this board. Everyone goes around "Bashing" the other airlines, except one must not forget that each is on the same team. It's great to see the enthusiasm of the "newbies" deciding who to interview with, or where they'll decide to go, but that enthusiasm starts and ends with ("I'm Going To Fly JETS! . . .Cool!") The pay doesn't matter, the QOL doesn't matter, Benefits do not matter, Management's actions toward the pilot (as well as Flight Attendant) group doesn't matter, etc., until later. The only thing that matters is that one is hired and has a start date to fly JETS! It's the pilot group as a whole that is willing to step over a dollar to pick up a nickle.

I have argued before (some may know) that I am not in favor of unions (for the most part . . .). And I have argued that if you do not like the pay, go somewhere else. I will also take the other side and argue that "Poverty Wages" for you professionals flying 50 to 70 and even 90 people, are unacceptable. Airline travel nowadays is a comody (Just like Jet Fuel). Best price of the day wins the business. . . . that is why wages are paultry. Quite frankly, as a passenger, I would be a little discouraged to know that my Captain, FO or even Flight attendants (Who are responsible for my life from Point A to Point B) are worth only a few sheckles of the ticket price I paid.

This begs another question. Would you trust a doctor (who is paid $19.25/hr )to operate on your eyes? Probably not. You would think he's not that good.

However, in the airline business the public doesn't know how little pilots make. They assume pilots are well paid. They don't know that many pilots NEED to have part-time jobs to supplement their income. The public doesn’t know that many pilots are too tired to fly because they have to work extra jobs. The public doesn’t know they are at risk. Many don't know that their "newbie" FO might be an 850TT 50 Multi pilot, who only first saw Glass display 3 weeks prior and whose longest x-ctry trip was 250 nm. (In a 172). Imagine, if they knew this and demanded that qualifications were higher for airline pilots.

When does it change? or When will it change? There are a few things that I see that could change the current trend of (Who gets to the bottom first).


PILOT SHORTAGE is a CAUSE for change.
Pilots (including wannabe pilots) begin not choosing or changing from a professional flying career because economically it is not feasible. (ATP’s issued from 1996 – 2005 have steadily declined from about 7,500 a year to 4,750 in 2005 an almost 40% decrease in qualified Captains) This will create a shortage and a few things can happen.

WHAT AIRLINES WILL TRY TO DO
Pilot minimums will become lower and lower until the new SIC will sit right seat in a jet with 250 hours. This individual will have been trained to so-called airline standards; HOWEVER, he/she will have never soloed in ANY plane. I hear it’s being proposed abroad because of the lack of numbers of qualified pilots to fill vacancies. (We can do it cheaper and faster) They (Airlines) will petition the government to change current regulations to favor increased growth of pilot supply at reduced rates, training, etc. There are more 250 hour pilots than there are 1,000 TT or even 2,000TT pilots in the market place. . . .
Consolidate: Airlines will try to merge in order to reduce air transport supply in the market place (thus pseudo increasing the number of pilots available to fly the fewer planes). Airlines will then be able to charge higher fees for the increased demand that is present. However, if they are too aggressive too much consolidation could create transportation substitution alternatives. (Bus, train, private planes, etc.)

WHAT AIRLINES WILL TRY NOT TO DO
Pay higher salaries. Imagine if air commerce stopped in the US for a week or even two. It did with the unfortunate surroundings of 9/11. However, the demand for air flight also dropped dramatically surrounding that incident. Demand actually dropped lower than supply, putting carriers out of business. Now imagine if Demand remained the same and the supply (meaning there were no pilots to fly those planes) ended for two weeks. Eventually, airlines would pay higher salaries, benefits, etc. in order to take advantage of the increasing demand.

WHAT PILOTS (“MAY”) DO
Massive pilot fleeing helps to reduce supply of those able to operate planes. Captains, both Junior and Senior will flee to where their time invested will provide them with a greater dollar reward and better QOL. As Captains flee, FO’s will welcome the short term increase in salary until they feel compelled to leave as well. If the economies of scale are greater and the opportunity cost is lower for NOT being a pilot, an outflow will happen causing massive dollars to be lost by airlines not being able to provide enough supply for demand. The Pilot’s unwillingness to settle for poverty wage will eventually force airlines to 1) Pay more or 2) Reduce qualifications with Govt. Intervention or 3) Go out of business.

WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL DO
The public will continue to fly. The public stops flying when cost becomes to probative or when SAFETY is compromised (like 9/11). Should any of these two scenarios happen, the public will choose to fly less, consider alternative transportation methods or not fly at all. When this happens the U.S.A will take a severe hit to economic growth. The U.S relies on the transportation industry to move goods and services that create jobs which in turn keeps the economy rolling along. If and when that stops, something has to start it rolling again. (Pilots Wanted signs will appear)

WHAT THE U.S GOVT. WILL DO
If the airlines fail to entice pilots to work through higher salaries, QOL, benefits, pensions etc., you can bet that the govt. will mandate to airlines to provide MINIMUM salaries for pilots OR they will provide supplemental assistance (subsidies) to companies or pilot groups in order restore transportation and promote the “economic need, welfare and desire” for the pilot/individual to choose a career in aviation. They have already done that guaranteeing airline pensions.

Pilots and the Airlines know what conditions are currently like, and how those conditions affect each. However, the public and government don’t know or care at this point, because everything is moving along smoothly. That is because it isn’t an issue for them now. It is only an issue when it affects them OR when they know it MIGHT affect them.

ALPA might do well spending more time educating elected officials and the general public about the outcomes of a “Pilot shortage” as well as the “Severe Safety Concerns” of these 250 hour pilots with extremely new decision making skills. And as a pilot group, it would do us well NOT to take the first job offered and NOT to succumb to the LURE of being a JET PILOT. It’s because of this (emotional) lure, (it’s definitely not an economic lure) that has the airlines providing us our lunch and eating it for us too.

So for what it’s worth, I’m not just bashing SKYW, quite frankly, I’m surprised they are not taking a proactive stance and raising the bar forcing others to keep up with them. Imagine if they paid $35/hr to a 1st year FO, $54 for his/her 2nd year, etc. You would get more qualified, skilled and seasoned pilots. Pilots might consider holding out to work for SKYW. (SKYW might not get or renew contracts because they would be over priced) HOWEVER, (the other airlines that did get the business might not be able to fill pilot positions at such menial wages to fly the business that was won.)

E