Can Do, Will Do.
It seems to me that people are compensated in the order of magnitude for what they can do for the outside world and for what they will do. A doctor for example must hold the mental acumen and determination to make it through 8 years of higher education plus years of internship. Most people can’t do that for many reasons. As a result Doctors are scarce and tend to earn more than those who have not made the same sacrifices. At the other end of the spectrum I suppose is the plumber. Few people would crawl under a rat and spider infested house to cut open a plugged sewer pipe that they know is full of repulsive waste. As a result they too are in relative demand for minimal career investment.
At one time aviation had barriers to entry. An applicant needed to fit inside of a height and weight bracket, have 20/20 uncorrected vision, be under the age of 30, college educated, have no nepotism conflicts and be from a specific social economic class. The result was that the pool of applicants was greatly restricted. Airlines had to compete for applicants. Pilots held the upper hand in negotiations. Only a few could do the job and there were even less that would do the job. Wages were much higher. Pilots were respected.
Changes in the hiring practices have blown the doors open at the airlines. Now a pilot can be fat, skinny, short or tall. New hires can be 22 or 62. Wear coke bottle glasses and be from a mail order college. These developments have been great for the airlines and diversity but bad for the profession. Now a pilot is compensated more for what they will do over what they can do. Flying is considered to be fun so pilots will do a lot to stay in the saddle.
As a result pay is going to keep plummeting until we reach the breakeven point of an income that is so low that career entry is restricted because only few can afford to do it anymore. (We could be there already) At that point the airlines will switch to a European style of cadet program. Young people will go straight from college to the majors to be trained for a specific operation on a single type. They will be paid minimum wage until they have flown off most of a decade. As with other impassioned youthful crusades like the Peace Corps, social or missionary work most will quit to find a real job. The lasting legacy of their airline pilot years will be to produce hair raising stories of their impoverished and misguided youth at dinner parties.
Some will be encouraged others not so much. My generation had to pay our own way through college and flight school. We did not have access to student loans to perpetuate the illusion. I had to earn each dollar for my flight training. I am not ashamed to say that my primary aviation career interest was as a job. I need to make a living and to have a life as the product of my efforts.
Skyhigh