Old 02-26-2012, 12:54 PM
  #3  
HalinTexas
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Joined APC: Feb 2005
Position: Was I finally in the right place at the right time?
Posts: 537
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1. It's NOT that radically different. BK laws have changed, but I don't think it changes the outcome that much. Banking laws (Dodd/Frank) changes things quite a bit, along with the fact that lenders are much more cautious. However, BO, if he's still in office, is not interested in an airline of AMRs size liquidating. It would be devistating to his political capital. AMR has LOTS of political capital. If you look at where their major hubs are, and how much AMR has "funded" the politicos in those hubs. AMR had one the largest legal and lobbying departments in the industry. Having said that, Wall Street and the major banks aren't going to fund a major bailout unless big changes are made, and I think this includes more consolidation. Which leads me to ...

2. I'm often wrong about my predictions of this industry, but I think there will be a partial liquidation of AMR. Some assets will be aquired by other carriers, and there might be a merger (or two) in the offing. I don't that major scope concessions are necessary unless other economic concessions don't happen. I think Eagle is most likely history, but if APA wants to keep pay, retirement, and workrules they might give on scope, saving Eagle, but resulting in deeper furloughs.

Unfortunately, but realistically, there are as many different motives at AMR as there are employees. Older employees are worried about different things than younger. Likewise, senior vs. junior. You get my drift. I hope and pray that all have a plan B (or C) to fall back on. I was prepared for ATA to furlough me, but I was not foreseeing it liquidate. I didn't think anyone was that stupid to let it disappear. It's coming up on four years, and financially we haven't recovered. Prepare for the worst, but expect it to be exponentially worse.

Good luck.
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