I am a realist, I think much of what I posted is possible. I have not posted why the above is not achievable. What I have posted that is not achievable is the upfront 40 to 70 percent raise many state is their minimum. A true restoration contract would require around a 65 percent upfront raise followed by Delta having to hire at least 4000 additional pilots to staff the old work rules. Costs would be well north of 1.5 billion. What I am asking for is half that.
I have also posted that even what I want may not be doable without a strike. Getting to a strike however is at least a 6 year project and even then may be ended with a PEB followed by congressional action.
That brings up what many on here refuse to acknowledge. There is a time value to a contract. Management does not care what they pay us. They only care what they pay us relative to the competition. What would put more money in your pocket overall. A quick somewhat modest contract done at the amendable date followed in 3 to 4 years by openers on the next contract or a long drawn out fight with no resolution for 5 or 6 years. If we get a quick contract we set a bar for the other airlines to follow. That makes the next contract much easier to negotiate.
If I were the CEO I would make us a quick offer now. I would get us up to SW hourly rates with some improvements in other areas. I would offer this because virtually all the important airline passenger contracts are in negotiation or up for negotiation. He quickly sets a bar that UAL has to follow and improves AMR's chances before the court. SWA contract is amendable in 2012. They have made no move in the last 11 years to improve their current contract but we will at least insure they don't take cuts that their management team is laying groundwork for. While the above is what I would do if I were management I have no illusions it is what will happen. I suspect in the end a long fight is where we are headed. Its a fight that will be won or lost in Washington DC on a political basis. That is why our current good relationship with the NMB is important to maintain.
There is a wild card to the entire contract issue. Things are happening in the industry and happening fast. It appears both the CEO, VP Flight ops and sleepy ED Bastion are all going to show this week for the MEC meeting. This is highly unusual. There is a distinct possibility we may not get to section 6 negotiations at all. I will leave that statement hanging out there. The next 6 months will be very interesting.