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Old 03-23-2012 | 03:16 PM
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Phuz
Kerbal Rocket Surgeon
 
Joined: Dec 2007
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From: DTW 717A
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Originally Posted by Sink r8
I was talking about the confluence of factors forcing (i.e. exerting pressure towards) an agreement, not a "forced" agreement in the sense that it is mandatory.

I just don't know how the regional model survives without scope givebacks, I don't see us willing to do this; I see Delta needing to get out of as many 50-seat agreements as quickly as possible; I see the fact that all airlines have "thousands" of qualified applicants on file, but they're the same applicants for all airlines, and I see the requirements for F/O's going up, shutting out the regionals even further; I don't see us willing to sign on for any unplanned arbitration, but I don't see why we wouldn't agree to putting the RJ pilots on the list with a pre-agreed SLI; I see manuacturers itching to make a sale...

...so I suspect there is opportunity there.

I don't really know how the regionals structure this without their stock price affected by the perspective of not growing, but then again, I think most regionals are getting close to an even less pleasant outcome for stockholders.

So I think there is a confluence of factors conspiring to wrap up the small-gauge end of the scope problem.

All pure speculation, of course.
IMO it is shortsighted and naive to think that 850+ 50 seat RJs currently flying today will dissapear because of a confluence of factors that you and many others believe is coming down the road. Remember '00? If you asked someone in '99 or 2000 what their thoughts on the industry were, would anyone have thought it would end up the way it has? Things change.

You don't solve scope by ignoring it while you blindly assume that the current trends are going continue and solve it for us in 5-10 years time. IMO a beneficial solution on scope is FAR more likely if it is proactively achieved versus passively awaited.