The legislation, known as the McCaskill-Bond statute, was signed into law in December 2007 and is codified at 49 U.S.C. § 42112.

The statute applies when two or more air carriers are involved in a "covered transaction," described as:

A transaction for the combination of multiple air carriers into a single air carrier; and which
Involves the transfer of ownership or control of—
50 percent or more of the equity securities (as defined in section 101 of title 11, United States Code) of an air carrier; or
50 percent or more (by value) of the la la la la la

The top of the list would probably be mostly American guys (due to the 777s) and then slotted by equipment. The NIC would most likely be recognized unless the arbitrator (assuming it goes that far) chooses to deviate greatly from the legal status quo. If you don't bring a seat at the time of the merger (furloughs) they would most be put on the bottom (bad for the furloughs, better slotting for the active AA though).

My aviation lawyer friend said the probability of this outcome is about 95%. He wasn't sure about fences.