Originally Posted by
gloopy
But it is simply not reasonable or credible for them to even suggest that, here and now, based on our current trajectory, that retirements aren't really a concern for 5 more years and we won't need to hire until 2015. That is just laughable, unless their current trajectory is continued significant "capacity dicipline". That may end up happening,especially with another scope sale, but the point is they do not know that now therefore to put something like that out when they did is clearly propaganda to manage expectations.
Absolutely correct. We’ve had 600+ pilots depart the property from 2009-2011. I find it hard to believe that less will leave in the next 3 years. Projections from R&I about a year ago had roughly 750 pilots leaving from 2012 – 2014 (based on 45% leaving prior to 65, which seemed to jive with the data on when pilots were actually punching out at the time.) Add some more for lead time (a member of the crew resources team said about 12-16 months to replace a retiree, though that was a few years ago,) plus extra bodies we likely need for the rest rules, (plus elimination of recovery obligations) and you could easily see us being 1000 pilots behind the curve by the time the sun comes up in 2015. We actually look like we will have a net *gain* in airframes in 2012, and stay basically status quo in 2013.
So as it stands right now, they basically have 2 choices going forward: Hire fairly soon, or continue to reduce mainline block hours. If they don’t, this summer will likely be “interesting,” with overheating likely occurring next summer, and the chance of a full blown operational meltdown in 2014. I know they state we have a surplus, but I think they overstate how large it is, and I expect that will evaporate within 18 months. Plus, you actually need a surplus to have the operational flexibility that network demands.
I think you’re also correct in that this is being put out to manage expectations. They need to be careful, though, as this could backfire. Faced with a bleak prognosis for advancement such as this, some of the members of the bottom of the list may begin to “shop around.”
Of course, there may be additional reasons for their methods. If we were to acquire something (another airline or piece of one,) there would likely be redundancy, and being lean to short when that happened would help to minimize that. As everyone has stated, there’s probably one more shoe to fall in the U.S. airline consolidation game, and it likely hinges on what happens to AMR – which I think everyone believes will be decided towards the end of the year.