"Shortage" might not be the right word, but there WILL be movement starting soon.

A few years ago everyone said that US Airways had so many furloughs that they probably wouldn't hire for a decade. They're hiring. AA and United are routinely pre-cancelling flights due to lack of crew. The UPS furloughs are largely a negotiating tactic.

The retirements start in December and some airlines stand to lose enormous numbers of pilots.

I don't like 'shortage' but the years of stagnation should at least come to an end.