Originally Posted by drrhythm2:1166751
Originally Posted by
block30
I feel slightly jaded about this shortage thing. I was starting to buy into it a couple years ago, but on age 65 eve, I just don't see things being that crazy hiring wise. Plus American, Eagle, PinnaColAba are furloughing/going to furlough-United, UPS guys on the street (and somebody fill in the other pilot groups on the street.). If I am not mistaken he bullish 2012 hiring projections have turned into a whimper..
No shortage. I think we would need a bubble economy like 07 to get a shortage. Otherwise the bean counters have too many cards left to play.
Block30: I make no promises, but I think you've got to give it about another year to really know for sure. I think they'll be evidence of it late this year, but if it's going to start to happen, you'll see it first quarter of 2013 when major pilots are really starting to retire and we are closing in on the ATP rule.
I got in late last year, and told myself I'm giving this a solid 24 months. If things were not moving well by then, I'll probably get out. But if so, it will have been well worth the risk.
24 months might not be enough time. Its a wave based industry.
There's a TON of retirentns near the end of the decade. Assuming some guys take an early out I think next year we'll see some churn then 2014 it really starts motoring up.
There will not be a shortage at the majors for a long time, but the regionals will feel it very soon. There's already a panic as to where guys are going to come from in about 5-10 years.