Originally Posted by
tsquare
If there is a complete merger, you could be right. If AA is fragmented, see SWAPA vs AT. Bond McCaskill has no teeth anymore.
And you can bet that DAL/UAL are not going to sit idly by and watch Dougie scoop up AMR lock stock and barrel without a bidding war either...
Yes, fragmentation is one of the risks. It's why I say that once we get to a certain point, NO ONE may be in the definative driver's seat and AMR probably won't regain that position, once it's lost. It's questionable as is.
The term, "playing with fire" comes to mind, where one minute it appears that everything is under control and the next instant the player gets badly burned. Personally, I hope they know what they're doing as I'd prefer AA to be a stand alone competitor with a unified management and work force, but considering the strategic and tactical decisions of the last decade and the recent decisions and claims so far in the C11 period, I have grave doubts. I simply cannot connect the dots of destroying your workers to the degree they desire to and building something competitive out of that wreckage or inspiring them in any form or fashion. It's very possible that things here will become so intolerable that fragmentation for all its destruction may be seen as a blessing.
I think this is the calm before the storm. Although the forcast has ominous tones, the storm track hasn't been defined yet, but I think every pilot in the bottom half of the AA list would be wise to consider a distinct possibility of being unemployed within 12-24 months and actively plan for that. If AMR loses their tenuous control and the wolves start tearing at the carcass, many of the fleas know they will be casulaties if they stay in the fur and will likely flee before any orderly transition of assets on their own timeline. Considering the likelyhood of many not being offered employement in a fragmentation shredder, I think many will take what they have and move on and perhaps too early in the interest of others.
This whole situation will have to be played flawlessly by people with anything but that track record, otherwise this could go south much quicker then many believe. Obviously, I'm very pessimistic about the current plan for success and feel it to be nothing more then a repeat of the lessons that should have been learned over the last decade, but weren't.
That's my opinion, anyway.