Originally Posted by
gloopy
So you're in the SWA pool too?
Anyway I don't see the savings from a refinery being targeted for certain airframes. We pay the fuel anyway for the DCI carriers and it all comes to us in the over all fuel bill. The closest we could come to doing that would be to not discount fuel at certain (all RJ) stations, but I don't think it will ever become that localized. Even if it was, again, we pay the fuel bill anyway. I see the regionals benefitting from this, but only proportionate to the size of the benefit itself relative to how much fuel they use. It won't be a game changer either way from a mainline vs regional standpoint, but they will benefit from it and the savings will unfortunately help soften their CASM IMO. I can't see it happening any other way.
Turned down SWA, sorry.
My comment was aimed at dealing with the RJ issue, but first lets look at the refinery. We will see that fuel on the open market. The margin that is paid for that product will effectively zero out the crack spread that we are seeing. However you want to rationalize the books on the refinery, it will allow DAL to zero out about 1.5+ bln a year in expenses. Fuel, RJ, our restorative raises, whatever.
On the RJ issue, there are many ways to get to the end point we all want; DAL flying performed by DAL seniority listed pilots. Forcing the issue, having DAL abandon the CPA's and then pay the penalties is one. Another is a plethora of sunset type of deals where the total RJ count decreases over time, and could possibly be tail number limited. Allowing only half of the jets to be renewed under a new CPA is another. There are many more options to this issue, many of them doable, and all with the ability to pull the flying down without legal exposure to DAL.
On how the refinery helps the RJ's, yes, it could lengthen the bandwidth for DAL parking them. It also would logically take the pressure off of them trying to squeeze more large RJs out of us, and wait for the C-Series as the penalty forgiveness jet. Point is, your are right that it loosens the noose around their necks with regard to to the RJs but the effects of this will be at least a year out. DAL still at this time wants a small RJ solution. Economics are just part of it. I know I would want em gone and use the refinery profit for other things than subsidizing and airframe that cannot efficiently carry our customers.