Tom, IMHO your assertions are based on a major error, that being AA and U will never merge. Even Horton admits AA merger is likely and U is the almost certain partner.

I think you need to accept what even Horton alludes to. The question for those of us LINE pilots is not if we merge with U, but when is the best time.

In order to accurately determine that, you have to accept that reality first and then assess all known aspects.

That's what most of us on the line hope to do. My apologies if that knocks over your apple cart.