Just for fun here are my merger predictions based upon business models, fleet types, hubs, etc (not necessarily what I would like to see) over the next 5 years:
Delta-Hawaiian: Delta wants any additional Haneda slots it can get its hands on. The fleets (A330 and 717) could fit together nicely. Delta can only choose one between Hawaiian or Alaska but not both (due to route concentration and likelihood of approval). Delta can flex up/down out of LAX/SEA should they decide to take some flying back from Alaska, already having hubs in both locations. Alaska doesn't appear interested in a merger (quotes from leadership). They are expensive (stock price) and currently making money on HI flying and their west coast hubs. Alaska has had a good thing going with next to no competition from Delta as Delta has ceded west coast flying to Alaska (some say to prepare the way for an Alaska merger that now wont happen?). That said, Alaska is getting competition from Virgin and will soon have more competition from the "me too crowd" now coveting their Hawaii flying profits.
With the Delta/Alaska code share, Delta is "getting the milk for free" if you believe in that kind of nonsense. For the record, I like the guys at Alaska...just would prefer Delta doesn't outsource west coast flying. Btw, has anybody noticed Delta now running some Beijing flights through Hawaii on the way to SEA? Is this new or been going on for a while?
American-US Airways: (this will face some hurdles but be successful in the end)
Jetblue-Virgin: One hold up could be Richard Branson's pride. keep the Virgin name in tact (ie Virgin Blue...I know its already been done...or Jet Virgin) and Branson as a part owner and it will fly.
Spirit- Frontier: Spirit is currently testing the Denver market. Bedford is losing his shirt with Frontier. Quickly trying to make it into a Ultra Low Cost Carrier and keeps talking about selling (even promised the employees "his best effort" to sell in return for them taking another pay cut lol). If Spirit likes what they see they may pick Frontier up at a fire sale price to grow more quickly out west. Spirit's costs are far lower than SWA and therefore able to undercut the once "low cost leader". Spirit will be able to move into leisure markets, taking market share from other carriers who focus on World of Walmart customers. The best way to hedge against this is going after the business traveler. SWA will have a difficult time competing with Spirit, sticking with their "bags fly free" policy (not an ULCC model leaving potentially Billions with a "B" of dollars behind) and do not offer first class. Kind of the worst of both worlds. PS- I hope my friends at Frontier end up in a good place.
This will leave us with 7 US Airlines:
Delta
United
American
Alaska
Southwest
Spirit
Allegiant
OK there is Sun Country too. I believe they have just over 100 pilots and doing more charter work than anything else.
On the Regional Airline side there will be a handful still left (as long as Delta, United, and American keep writing them checks). Skywest Inc will have the largest portfolio of the bunch.
As another side note, it will be a mad dash for all the so called low cost carriers to add Hawaii and flying south of the boarder. It's so "IN" right now
Anybody else have other ideas? We can refer back to this thread in five years (or less) and see who was right.
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