Originally Posted by
seafeye
Well AA couldn't sell eagle so the next best thing would be to grow them. Get them flying longer routes with bigger airplanes. It's just an evolution of regional airlines of the past.
Beech 1900 to
Crj 200 to
Crj 700 to
Crj 900 to
Crj 1000.
It's gonna happen. AA pilots maybe able to hold ground on scope but I put that at about a 10% chance.
Agreed. RJ's (and regional carriers) comprise 50% of the domestic market. That will grow and current legacy carrier will shrink.
That was my point.
It's more then clear that the majority of current pilots at regional carriers will stay there for the remainder of their careers. The benefits of retirements at mainline carriers (which won't become significant for another 5 years - provided they don't increase the retirement age to 67 or 70) will be offset by mainline contraction as more and more of that flying is given to regionals.
E-190's and CRJ-1000's can do almost all the domestic work and thus it will be the final stop for many. AMR's 1113 for Eagle has captains maxing out at about 90K/year but the methodology ensures it stays there for at least 7 years.
90K in 2019 is equivalent to about $65K in 2012 and that is the end stop for the majority. That's why I say those who are watching the AA debacle and are looking short-term are missing the REAL message to this profession.
The "Walmartization" of this profession has arrived and amazingly, its arrival is being cheered by many who see only what they want to see. Based on that alone, it cannot fail and won't.