Originally Posted by
eaglefly
My bet says a lot of regionals will dissolve thru merger or elimination and the 50-seat and smaller RJ's and turboprops will be replaced with larger RJ's. Since the majors won't have heavy retirements for years and they will be contracting anyways, there will be few places for regional pilots to go.
I think they'll have no problem filling the RJ seats for the next 3-5 years as the regional industry shakes out. As some carriers downsize or disappear others will expand, thus many junior will be starting over elsewhere. Pinnacle is already following Comair and which carriers are the players and which aren't has still to play out.
$5/hour more for new-hires won't be creating a stampede for the right seat of an RJ and $40-50/K year regional new-hires won't happen as that would be more then most majors who can spread their cost over more revenue producing seats of larger aircraft.
Your not seeing each market served. Many markets served by RJ are old turbo prop markets, such as ALB-EWR. This will not go to a 70 seat jet. Same with IAD-ABE, or SFO-SAC.
Also a vast majority of the 70+ seat RJs are flying routes previously served by 737-500/300 (90-120 seats), or 727, or DC-9. We have also seen an increase in frequency in these places, while cutting capacity. IE 2 727 (250 total seats) is now 3 CRJ 700. (200 seats). That is just odd ball numbers but I think you get my point.
I do not see routes like MIA-TLH going to a 70 seat jet, or getting dropped. Same with GNV/NAS/GGT/PNS/BHM etc. They will remain 50 seat RJs, till something makes more sense. The frequency they have now works for the hub/spoke system they run.
Same with LGA-RDU, LGA-CLT, LGA-YYZ, JFK-CLE, JFK-CVG. No other airlines really fit this route, but they feed the INTL travel.
If your predictions came true, it would mean your out on the street, since you feel more flying will be farmed out. However lucky for you, your wrong. With retirements, and lack of incoming pilots, the upward movement will be fairly steady for 15 years to come. The regional business will shrink off, as they see their staffing costs skyrocket. A319s on a B scale will more likely be the case at mainline. I think the airline owned regionals will grow starting in 2 years, as they can offer stability. The Pinnacle situation is just step 1 of a long road. Look what that did to United. Republic maybe next, which could really shake things up since CHQ flys for EVERYONE.