Originally Posted by
forgot to bid
But it's a domestic presence at JFK when the domestic prize in NYC is LGA.
JFK would be great, if it was moved to LGA. Until then, a domestic JFK operation is great for Long Island east of Queens.
It may be a Plan B for SWA, but right now Plan A is merging with FL and up sizing to 738s. For AMR or DAL, merging with B6 is a way to get rid of a competitor and then reward the multitude of other competitors with new divested slots. Frankly, it's just messy.
So I bet next round of mergers, JB is still standing by itself unless it joins with Virgin San Fransisco.
By "next round" you're probably right, as AA/US will probably be busy and maybe DL/AS and/or HI. I suspect there will be more consolidation before JB is in play, but I wouldn't expect their independance to last too much longer.
I still think AA, with or without US, will absolutely need more capacity and slots in JFK. Without fixing that major issue they will never be able to compete with DL or UA in arguably the most important market. I can't see them not doing something about it fairly soon (within a few years but probably sooner).
SW is done diddling around with ISP and fake little niche NYC markets and is ready to be a player. And they will have to be. Biggest domestic airline yet they have only a joke of a token presence in the biggest domestic market. While I'm sure they would prefer LGA, there's no way for them to get much more other than to get it from DL or AA. Not likely.
While JFK is arguably less desirable than LGA, its infinitely better than nothing even for so called LCC domestic. Its really the only realistic choice SW has to become a major player in NYC. But wait, doesn't the Port Authority say that SWF is also a NYC airport?
So SW can get JFK capacity from DL, AA or JB. That's it. Maybe, and this is a very outside maybe, they can get UA to give them all of their JFK presence in exchange for their EWR slots but that would be harder to get aprooval for not to mention even that wouldn't give them enough of a footprint to be a serious contender like they need to be.
SW needs more NYC and they ain't going to grow into it "organically". They need to get it from someone and they ain't getting it from DL, UA or AA outside of a very unlikely Ch.7 and there's no one else to get it from...unless they buy all or part of JB.
Getting back to the SLI, I don't think JB would be stapled. I think they would either be fragmented and not taken or, if they got in front of an arbitrator, they very well may end up absolutely destroying whoever they merged with. A ratio/relative integration with a very young pilot group like that, regardless of fences, would likely be the biggest seniority windfall outside of bankruptcy we've ever seen. AA and SW are notorious for being extremely harsh in mergers WRT SLI's. If either one smelled genuine leverage from the individual conract situation and/or the much ballyhooed "federal merger law" I would be shocked if either (or both) didn't structure the event to fall outside of that possibility, and I see the pilots and management cooperating fully together to make that happen.
Or maybe APA/SWAPA/USAPA would be hunky dory with a 1-3 year pilot sliding in with 15-20 year pilot and a 10 year pilot topping their list. Maybe. But I doubt they would be willing to risk it in this day and age of relative ratio integrations once it gets that far in the process.