Originally Posted by
Wingtips
Well look at PNCL right now, they merged the list, and now are getting rid of a ton of planes. I think the same would be the case in a PSA/EGL marriage. I also think if you merge the list, that your misunderstanding out list. Yes we have a bunch of senior captains, but they also have AA rights, and will get slapped in this BK to industry average, and many will finally leave.
The biggest winners will be the fairly senior CAs at PSA that have not been at PSA all that long, since they would end up in with 20 year EGL CAs. However as you get to less than 10 years, you will see less overlap. 7-10 years at EGL gets you the bottom half of Captains. 4-7 years gets you the top of the FO list, and everyone else is the bottom half.
We added 25 CRJs in 2010, so that added 250 more pilots, also about 250 went to AA. IF AA hires another 250 will go fairly fast, and that is why we over hired, prior to BK EGL was planning to hire another 750 due to the attrition rate last year and AA. We hired 900 since 2010.Mid 2006 is most JR CA.
Planning your hypotheticals on AA hiring (or ANY significant attrition of regional pilots to major airlines) in the next 3-5 years isn't realistic, if you ask me. Assuming the advancement burp by Eagle pre-bankruptcy to continue in perpituity isn't either. I understand you clinging to that, as with your seniority it's the only reality you've experienced. AA is FAR more lkely to furlough rather then hire. In fact, under Parker's acquisition deal there would be no furloughs, but likely also no hiring for awhile. My bet says under Horton's post BK merge, there would be more significant furloughs then the 400 that might occur during the reorganization.
By the time even the 253 would get a shot at AA, they'll be 5 years older and even less likley to "get out of the way". IF (and that's a BIG if) the 824 agreement survives both chapter 11 AND any merger with U, expect no more attrition then Eagle could withstand internally (normally 20/month) and so if and when AA/U starts hiring in any numbers it will be a slow/steady trickle. This all assumes Eagle itself even survives a merger with U in whole or part. If in part and junior Eagle pilots are furloughed they'd be starting over at the bottom elsewhere when re-offered new-hires slots at another regional.
How many pilots in this industry (both regional and major) have a past history of "1 step forward/2 steps back" ?
That reality is part of this business and Eagle pilots (especially the recently hired mass) have yet to grasp or experience that reality. Ask any Mesa, Comair, Pinnacle, Midwest, etc. pilot and you'll get a sad shake of the head.