Originally Posted by
Wingtips
Eaglefly you have to understand 9/11 is over, the age 65 change is now behind us, and the FT/DT and 1500 hour rule are coming. It is not 2008 after a massive economy bubble pop just 7 years after 9/11. You seem to think that a 12 year abnormality, fueled by govt changes and foreign policy blow back, is going to continue. However its coming to a time of self correction.
9/11 is over !!! It seems only yesterday I took off at dawn from my outstation to my hub and watched the whole thing in the crewroom after I got there (Eagle RJ captain at the time).
Jeez.........I had no idea !
FT/DT will be mostly mitigated by PBS at carriers that don't have it (that's you and me especially). Additionally, you DID note all the loopholes included that water's the FT/DT improvements down,yes ?
As an example, most of the major carriers like DAL and UAL said it would only amount to needing another 400 pilots or so and they have seniority lists 4-5 times that of Eagle and much larger then AA. AMR broke ranks and intially stated they'd need an extra 2400 pilots, but once the ridiculousness of that became obvious, they too have tempered that estimate down to close to that of the others. The regionals for the most part (especially with PBS) have the flexibility due to weak scheduling language and rare trip/duty rigs to hardly feel a ripple from that.
The 1500 hour rule will slow the entrance, but already flight schools will get waivers down to 500-800 hourse depending on the program. Considering the majority of previous regional entrants from these sources had at least 5-800 hours, very little change there, which was the whole point as guess who controls government roadblocks to corporate profits as I stated before ?
The shortage will be college entrants seeing the $50-75,000 extra above tuition that they'll have to pay of for a decade or longer for a $25-30,000 year job. Many who would have gone into Pilot positions, either will shun the airlines or go into another career. The philospohy that some "windy" characters on some of those Eagle websites believe that regionals will have to raise pay to get people won't work. They're getting people now and this problem is still several years off. If anything, I'd think they'd find it much cheaper to offer funding for those who go to flight training programs, instead of offering more pay accross the board. I think in 5-7 years it WILL be a problem, but to really change that equation, you'd have to raise regional new-hire pay to at or above a major carrier and then where are they ?
As for age rule changes now being "behind us", I think that is unfortunate assumption. It seems to me you have a lot of disappointment coming your way on the long and bumpy road of this profession with all these pollyanna ideas. Economic forces AGAINST airline pilots have never been greater and leverage has never been weaker.