Originally Posted by
Stitches
That may be but those who will benefit the most from this are the pilots that are qualified to fill those jobs now. There will be a hiring wave, but you (likely) won't be there to take full advantage of it.
Getting in on the front end of a wave is great, back side, not so much. Reference .com bubble, real estate bubble etc.
Lets assume you get on at a regional at 23 and stay for 5 years to build time before hired by a major at 28. So in 11 years, after the bulk of the retirements there will be thousands of pilots 5-10 years older than you ahead of you on the seniority list. You'll be inching up the seniority ladder for 20-30 years very slowly.
eh... I think the retirement figures are projected to increase yearly with a peak sometime in the early 2020's... Not to say that they won't mean much because the odds are already stacked against current pilots, but the OP could feasibly get to a legacy and make a decent career if he goes for it with some gusto at the moment. Yes, the guys at regionals are the ones who are going to benefit over the next 5 years, but as it stands now, after that, it will be our turn (those of us that don't currently have the 1500 or already work at a regional) as the retirements really ramp up. I don't think much is going to change over the next 5 years, in fact they will probably get worse as far as furloughs and layoffs go, but in 10... I think things will be much different.
Unless of course they change the game on us somehow... single-pilot 121 ops (which many companies are actively working towards with the help of major airlines) would be one way. Imagine most major airlines being able to offer safe and affordable flights because of innovation in automation and safety features on big airliners. With rising gas prices forever in our future, and people on average having less money in their pockets, let alone to travel... I imagine something like this will be coming down the pipe at some point as airlines and consumers seek out ways to save money. I hope it never happens... but it certainly could.