I work for a major collegiate flight school, and I also have an MBA. By no means does this mean I can predict the future, but the data from our end shows the numbers are drying up. I graphed out our total annual flight hours between 2003 and late 2011. Our total flight hours have dropped 40% between 2007 and 2011, enrollment down 42% Not so ironically, our management made large aircraft and avionics investments right at the market peak in 2007. Literally bought right at the top.

There doesn't appear to be an end to the trend yet. The college is pretty tight lipped, but the instructors have received a $5/hr pay cut November 2011, our personal use of aircraft was cut this month, 10 new students are enrolled for the Summer I semester (1/3 of what it has been over the last 5 years) and there is talk of a fleet reduction of 5 aircraft. Anyone should be able to read between the lines on this one.

-And another thing- the longer there is a surplus of pilots, it's just all the more likely that it will change. The labor market will correct its self, and we are seeing the beginning of that.