Originally Posted by
FlightCheck
I work for a major collegiate flight school, and I also have an MBA. By no means does this mean I can predict the future, but the data from our end shows the numbers are drying up. I graphed out our total annual flight hours between 2003 and late 2011. Our total flight hours have dropped 40% between 2007 and 2011, enrollment down 42% Not so ironically, our management made large aircraft and avionics investments right at the market peak in 2007. Literally bought right at the top.
There doesn't appear to be an end to the trend yet. The college is pretty tight lipped, but the instructors have received a $5/hr pay cut November 2011, our personal use of aircraft was cut this month, 10 new students are enrolled for the Summer I semester (1/3 of what it has been over the last 5 years) and there is talk of a fleet reduction of 5 aircraft. Anyone should be able to read between the lines on this one.
-And another thing- the longer there is a surplus of pilots, it's just all the more likely that it will change. The labor market will correct its self, and we are seeing the beginning of that.
Similar situation where I'm at. Went from a fleet of almost 30 planes 5 years ago down to only 14 now. Enrollment way down over the past 5 years or so. Technically they didn't cut instructor pay, but they froze pay raises, and we lost a couple of instructors to the airlines who are not going to be replaced. The college just tells us instead we need to work 50+ hour work weeks to absorb the extra workload. (the joys of being salaried lol)
So, yes, there are fewer pilots coming up through the pipeline. I attribute this to the difficulty of getting student loans for flight training, plus the obscene expense that flight training has become with $6/gallon 100LL. If there was a cheaper way to get in I believe more pilots would.
Things will get tighter at the airlines, but they will hold off on significant pay raises and do whatever it takes to keep costs down as long as they can. I envision route cuts, and flying fewer flights in larger RJ's (e.g. 2/day trips in a 70 seater vs 4/day in a 40 seater). Then there is the possibility of ab initio programs causing students to be in debt to airlines and stuck at low pay for many years. I'm sure there's other ways the airlines could find ways to cut costs.
What I see in the near future is pay pretty much holding still, and building hours becoming a lot harder. A year or so from now there will be a glut of flight instructors and low time pilots waiting for the pilots ahead of them to get to ATP mins, and hiring for low-time jobs will be at a standstill like it was in 2009-2010.