Originally Posted by Roadkill

Flew with several captains recently whose answer to everything I said was "well retirements are about to kick in and that will solve all your scope/stagnation concerns". No matter what I said on the company shrinking faster than we're retiring, or that concessionary steps like in this last NNP reduce the need for pilots faster than projected retirements, same answer:
"Retirements are gonna go crazy soon and for every 1 retirement there will be another leave for medical etc."

None of them had any numbers, they all thought retirements would be happening in 2013, and could/would not respond to the actual retirement projections posted on the ALPA calculator. They frankly didn't believe me that we're shrinking faster than retirements. It's frustrating to try to explain to them how small decreases in required manning can put off hiring and totally negate retirements through 2015 or 2016 easily.

So for this last year or so, 1 Apr 11 through the latest seniority list, here are some numbers:
1Apr11 thru 1 May 12
total pilots 1Apr11: 12,276 from seniority list that date
total pilots 1May12: 12,004
pilots lost: 272
total scheduled retirements from 1Apr11 thru 1May12: 9 (from ProjRet1104)
total spots I moved backwards between 2May11 pilot cat list (1106a) and most recent cat list as of 22Mar12:
73NB
SLC -9
NYC -4
ATL -11
CVG -1
LAX 0

320B, M88B are both similar-- a 0-10% drop in all cats but one (M88B in NYC I moved up 3%, still >3% avg. loss).

What's this say? That from all the best data published (category lists, retirement lists, and seniority lists) comparing the same period as close as you can, as a 10 year seniority guy I moved BACKWARDS 0-10%, but definitely backwards, in all spots, WHILE the company had 9 projected retirements and actually lost 272 pilots off the list! If I assume a 3% avg. backslide (which my thorough study of my cat #'s is way over), that's 360 pilots from todays 12,000 list. But we LOST 272, so that means the company actually SHRANK BY 632 PILOT POSITIONS! While we had 9 retirements. ( I was unable to pull last year's D2 and D3 requirements and only had Aug11 numbers to compare to current D2/D3 nums, and kept losing Deltanet connection. The D2/D3 differential was larger than my anecdotal 632, so I went with my derived empirical number as the lesser).

Now let's look to the future at these big supposed "game changing retirements":
2012: 13
2013: 80
2014: 132
2015: 184
2016: 246
Do you see how these retirements compare to what Delta shrank this year alone, 632 positions? They're nothing, easily subsumed within Delta's ability to reduce by marginal efficiencies! Just a 2% change in the pilot needs via some efficiency such as increased reserve utilization (!) will carry us all the way through the beginning of 2015 with no hiring right at the exact same (Overstaffed!) level! If you add another 2 years of retirements in 2015 & 2016 you lose another 430 pilots, that's 3.5% of today's list--just about "right sized" for increased reserve utilization and reduction of over-staffing at the end of 2016 with NO HIRING.

Now there will be all sorts of folks critique these trajectory predictions and claim, "Delta is about to grow, we'll need more pilots etc.", but NO DATA supports that claim... the only data out there shows a continuous and steady reduction of pilots required, outsourced flying and reduced needs. THIS is the real data and how it affects the bottom of the list. Retirements through 2016 are essentially negated by the company's demonstrated and historical plan and operations.