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Old 05-14-2012 | 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by scambo1

I have a question about contract valuation:

Did DALPA use national's EF&A for valuation of this contract? That would be good.

Or did DALPA use its internal numbercrunchers and Strat Planning / Economic committee people...That would be bad.
Don't know who DALPA is using for that, but there is reason to be concerned either way. While EF&A has good accounting resources, they are as bad as costing the long term blowback of certain things as ALPA is at proposing and agreeing to them.

If we all got double the life insurance or an extra dollar per hour per diem, I'm sure ALPA EF&A could cost it pretty accurately. A scope sale, OTOH, I doubt they ever get right.

I doubt they are even capabile of thinking about, much less figuring out how to cost, the long term effects of dead weight pattern bargaining, stagnation, negative force majeure and unfavorable contract language interpretations and even industry patterned behavior. Whatever we allow tomorrow will just be matched by our competition anyway.

In the 50 seat heyday, I'm sure the "costing" was all about incoming revenue because the "businessman loves frequency!". Not only did that multibillion dollar bubble pop hard, but even before it did and the 50's were in their salad days, eventually everyone got them, raided each other's hubs constantly and suddenly no one had much of an advantage. I really doubt ALPA EF&A even tried to predict something as inevitable as that, much less having the capacity to accurately cost it out long term.

For example, what is the "value" to 100 more 76 seaters at DCI? Even if we come up with XXX million dollars, that number doesn't include the effect of our actions causing AA and UAL to loosen scope further just because what we did. The insurance, per diem and pay that was otherwise costed out accurately in a bubble now falls apart too as jobs are shifted to cut throat low bidders, which is the ONLY reason for a scope sale to begin with. And then soon everyone has them and overflies eachother and no one wins anyway, thus spurring the "need" for another scope sale. Its barely over a decade ago when the company only wanted twenty 70 seaters. Try costing that out. HA!

Of course the check and balance in all this isn't to "not trust" ALPA EF&A. At least not with some things. But other things, like the value of our very jobs, need to be zealously guarded and never, ever, given to them to cost out in the first place, cause they can't and reality would mop the floor with their results if they even tried. It is out of their league, yet how can they cost a contract accurately if they can't deal with some of the biggest aspects of one in the first place?